The problem is that we never get to the point where UPlay asks us to pick an install location. The error message pops up as soon as I hit "Download" in UPlay, it never gives me an option to choose where to install to.
I checked UPlay's debug.log and figured that this line is the cause of the problem:
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[0523/132151:INFO:CONSOLE(0)] "Failed to execute 'postMessage' on 'DOMWindow': The target origin provided ('https://ubisoftinternational.demdex.net') does not match the recipient window's origin ('http://fast.ubisoftinternational.demdex.net').", source: (0)
Which got me thinking - didn't Nadeo remove the Trackmania and Shootmania demos off Steam? Is it possible that they also removed it from UPlay when MP4 came out, preventing anyone who owns all of the trackmania games on Steam/standalone from linking their UPlay account to MP4, if they haven't done so already?
Edit: Just checked this thread, the Shootmania demo download should work but it's not for some reason.